Livyi Bereh 1-1 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Livyi Bereh at 47%, yet in-form Obolon'-Brovar provide a compelling counter-argument — this Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Obolon'-Brovar make the trip to Stadion Livyi Bereh to face Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 June 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Livyi Bereh (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Livyi Bereh have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Obolon'-Brovar's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Obolon'-Brovar are 1.10 PPG clear of Livyi Bereh in recent Premier League fixtures (1.10 vs 0.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Livyi Bereh lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Obolon'-Brovar winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 1.35 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.657 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.202. Obolon'-Brovar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Livyi Bereh's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 0 Livyi Bereh games / 30 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 47% | Draw 28% | Obolon'-Brovar 25%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Obolon'-Brovar 4.00. Livyi Bereh hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Livyi Bereh are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Obolon'-Brovar (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Livyi Bereh if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 47% | Draw 28% | Obolon'-Brovar 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Livyi Bereh 1.35 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.657 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.202 • Poisson stance: Livyi Bereh (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Obolon'-Brovar xG
44%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Livyi Bereh 1 - 1 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 47% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Livyi Bereh the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (1 meetings): Livyi Bereh 0W | Draws 0 | Obolon'-Brovar 1W.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Livyi Bereh's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Obolon'-Brovar's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Obolon'-Brovar's attack (0.66x) against Livyi Bereh's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 0/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Livyi Bereh Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.60
25%
3.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
2.26
0.91
Obolon'-Brovar xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
3.97
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
7%
15.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.8 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 0.91 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 1 outings, Livyi Bereh have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Obolon'-Brovar's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Obolon'-Brovar are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Livyi Bereh.
Attack vs Defence
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 1.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Obolon'-Brovar in 0%.
Defensively: Obolon'-Brovar in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Early Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Livyi Bereh or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Livyi Bereh have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Livyi Bereh have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Livyi Bereh
2
Draws
2
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 4 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 0, Obolon'-Brovar have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 0% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 0% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Relegation Round, as Livyi Bereh and Obolon'-Brovar drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 1.35 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.91 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.66 / defence 1.23, drawn from 0/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 47% | Draw 28% | Obolon'-Brovar 25%, with Livyi Bereh to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 0%, Obolon'-Brovar 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Obolon'-Brovar arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Livyi Bereh scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm. Obolon'-Brovar shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.