Veres Rivne 1-3 Chornomorets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Veres Rivne at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Veres Rivne and Chornomorets meet at Avanhard Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Veres Rivne's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's home record at Avanhard Stadium: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Chornomorets have collected 0.67 PPG across 9 Premier League outings this season: 1W 3D 5L. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.56 per game is modest, conceding 1.22 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Chornomorets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chornomorets's away record: 0W 0D 3L from 3 road trips in Premier League this season (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.00 is notably below their overall 0.67 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.67 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Veres Rivne, who have won 5 of the last 7 meetings against Chornomorets — a 1D 1W return for the visitors.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Veres Rivne winning.
The historical record gives Veres Rivne a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Veres Rivne half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 44% of games.
Chornomorets half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 44% versus Chornomorets 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Veres Rivne 33% | Chornomorets 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.30 xG and Chornomorets 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 0.780 / defence 1.247 | Chornomorets attack 0.720 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.301 / away 1.086. Veres Rivne's attack strength of 0.780 is below the league average — the 1.30 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chornomorets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Veres Rivne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Veres Rivne games / 9 Chornomorets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 40% | Draw 36% | Chornomorets 24%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Chornomorets 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Veres Rivne are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Veres Rivne 50% | Chornomorets 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Avanhard Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 40% | Draw 36% | Chornomorets 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 49% | xG Veres Rivne 1.30 / Chornomorets 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 0.780 / def 1.247 | Chornomorets attack 0.720 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.301 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Chornomorets xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Avanhard Stadium.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets?
Veres Rivne 1 - 3 Chornomorets.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets being played?
The match is being played at Avanhard Stadium.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets part of?
Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 40% chance of winning, Chornomorets a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Veres Rivne and Chornomorets will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Chornomorets?
Record (7 meetings): Veres Rivne 5W | Draws 1 | Chornomorets 1W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Chornomorets in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Chornomorets (all comps): 1W-3D-5L in 9 | 0.67 PPG | GF 0.56 / GA 1.22 | L5 L-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Veres Rivne's attack rating (0.78) and Chornomorets's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Chornomorets's attack (0.72x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.25x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 40/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
40%
2.49
36%
2.79
24%
4.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.28
0.97
Chornomorets xG
2.49
40%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
4.17
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.60
7%
15.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Chornomorets expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 0.97 for Chornomorets, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Veres Rivne's recent record stands at 2W 3D 4L from 9 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chornomorets, meanwhile, have gone 1W 3D 5L across 9 games — 0.67 PPG, with L-D-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Chornomorets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Veres Rivne against 0.67 for Chornomorets. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Veres Rivne have managed 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chornomorets's away record stands at 0W 0D 3L across 3 trips, a 0.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.67 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Chornomorets's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Veres Rivne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Veres Rivne are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Chornomorets are on 0.56 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Chornomorets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Chornomorets in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Chornomorets have gone 1W 3D 5L in their last 9 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Chornomorets away?
Veres Rivne's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.00 PPG; Chornomorets away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Chornomorets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Chornomorets in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 5 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Veres Rivne
1
Draws
2
Chornomorets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Chornomorets?
From 8 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 5, Chornomorets have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Chornomorets last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Veres Rivne 1-3 Chornomorets.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Chornomorets?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Veres Rivne) and 33% (Chornomorets) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Veres Rivne) and 33% (Chornomorets).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne have failed to score in 67% of games; Chornomorets in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Chornomorets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Chornomorets?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 33% of Chornomorets's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Chornomorets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 33% of Chornomorets's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Chornomorets tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Chornomorets in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Chornomorets cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Chornomorets beat Veres Rivne 1-3 at Avanhard Stadium, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.30 xG and Chornomorets 0.97 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Chornomorets outscored their 0.97 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 0.78 / defence 1.25 against Chornomorets attack 0.72 / defence 1.28, drawn from 40/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 40% | Draw 36% | Chornomorets 24%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Chornomorets win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 33%, Chornomorets 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Chornomorets's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Veres Rivne 1.00 PPG, Chornomorets 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chornomorets win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chornomorets (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.