🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Zorya Luhansk run riot with a 1-4 hammering of SK Poltava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zorya Luhansk beat SK Poltava 1-4 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.99 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.22 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk outscored their 1.22 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.86 / defence 1.00 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.01 / defence 1.06, drawn from 3/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 30% | Draw 29% | Zorya Luhansk 41%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 67%, Zorya Luhansk 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Poltava's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SK Poltava 1.00 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. SK Poltava shipped 4 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zorya Luhansk scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights