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Dominant Polessya run riot with a 0-4 hammering of SK Poltava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat SK Poltava 0-4 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.75 xG and Polessya 2.90 xG, a combined 3.64. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Polessya outscored their 2.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.81 / defence 1.77 against Polessya attack 1.35 / defence 0.77, drawn from 22/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 7% | Draw 12% | Polessya 81%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 81%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 49% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 68%, Polessya 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Poltava's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Polessya's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.45. Form held, and they took the win. SK Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights