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Prediction vindicated as Obolon'-Brovar edge out SK Poltava 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Obolon'-Brovar beat SK Poltava 1-2 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.81 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.37 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.76 / defence 1.32 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.78 / defence 0.90, drawn from 8/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 22% | Draw 28% | Obolon'-Brovar 50%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 50%, Obolon'-Brovar 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Poltava's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Obolon'-Brovar arrived the stronger side — 1.25 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights