🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Obolon'-Brovar at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Poltava vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 9 as SK Poltava welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Zirka Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 17 October 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form Guide

SK Poltava — All Games: 1W 1D 6L from 8 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.62 goals per game and conceding 2.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.12 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.

SK Poltava at Zirka Stadium this season: 1W 0D 2L from 3 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — SK Poltava are significantly better at Zirka Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Premier League games this season, Obolon'-Brovar have recorded 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Form points away from home here. Obolon'-Brovar's 1.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of SK Poltava's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

In-Play Data

SK Poltava trading profile (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.

Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games; they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 50% versus Obolon'-Brovar 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SK Poltava 50% | Obolon'-Brovar 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.81 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.764 / defence 1.316 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.781 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.335. SK Poltava's attack strength of 0.764 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 SK Poltava games / 38 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SK Poltava 22% | Draw 28% | Obolon'-Brovar 50%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | Obolon'-Brovar 2.00. Obolon'-Brovar hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Obolon'-Brovar at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Obolon'-Brovar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.

Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Poltava 33% | Obolon'-Brovar 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights