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Kudrivka cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SK Poltava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kudrivka beat SK Poltava 0-2 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 1.27 xG and Kudrivka 1.34 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SK Poltava fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.76 / defence 1.47 against Kudrivka attack 0.76 / defence 1.38, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 35% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 38%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 71%, Kudrivka 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Poltava's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Kudrivka's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Kudrivka arrived the stronger side — 0.94 PPG against 0.53. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kudrivka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.62 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights