🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

SK Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SK Poltava and Kolos Kovalivka finished level at 2-2 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.82 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.79 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. SK Poltava beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.82 / defence 1.40 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.98 / defence 0.94, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 16% | Draw 25% | Kolos Kovalivka 60%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 56%, Kolos Kovalivka 22%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Poltava's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Kolos Kovalivka arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 0.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. SK Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights