🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SK Poltava vs Kolos Kovalivka encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Zirka Stadium plays host to SK Poltava versus Kolos Kovalivka in Premier League, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Sunday 26 October 2025 at 11:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

SK Poltava have collected 0.44 PPG across 9 Premier League outings this season: 1W 1D 7L. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.67 goals per game and conceding 2.11 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.11 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SK Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, SK Poltava have posted 1W 0D 3L at Zirka Stadium — 0.75 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.

Kolos Kovalivka (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kolos Kovalivka's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

On a straight form reading, Kolos Kovalivka are the stronger side — 1.06 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.44). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

Trading & In-Play

SK Poltava — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Kolos Kovalivka — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SK Poltava 56% versus Kolos Kovalivka 33%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (SK Poltava 56% | Kolos Kovalivka 22%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SK Poltava 0.82 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SK Poltava attack 0.817 / defence 1.398 | Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.980 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.060 / away 1.307. Data: 9 SK Poltava games / 39 Kolos Kovalivka games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: SK Poltava 16% | Draw 25% | Kolos Kovalivka 60%. Fair-value odds: SK Poltava 6.25 | Draw 4.00 | Kolos Kovalivka 1.67. The model has a clear lean to Kolos Kovalivka (60%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SK Poltava 50% | Kolos Kovalivka 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights