🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Epitsentr Dunayivtsi run riot with a 0-3 hammering of SK Poltava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat SK Poltava 0-3 at Zirka Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting SK Poltava 0.82 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.42 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. SK Poltava fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi outscored their 1.42 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SK Poltava attack 0.82 / defence 1.40 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.81 / defence 0.89, drawn from 14/14 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it SK Poltava 22% | Draw 27% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 51%, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SK Poltava 64%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

SK Poltava's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — SK Poltava 0.64 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win broke the near-deadlock. SK Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights