Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Vorskla Poltava.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Vorskla Poltava 3-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.28 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.95 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.81 / defence 0.93 against Vorskla Poltava attack 1.00 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 66% | Draw 22% | Vorskla Poltava 13%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 57%, Vorskla Poltava 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (44 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (44 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights