Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (1.81) and Vorskla Poltava's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 2.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 1-1 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
66%
1.52
22%
4.63
13%
7.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
3.23
0.95
Vorskla Poltava xG
1.52
66%
Home win
4.63
22%
Draw
7.94
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
10%
9.79
Win to Nil
26%
3.91
1%
77.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.1 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.8 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.95 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 3.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Vorskla Poltava?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 66%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.