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Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Ruh Lviv.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Ruh Lviv 3-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.73 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.55 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.53 / defence 0.72 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.63 / defence 0.96, drawn from 50/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 66% | Draw 23% | Ruh Lviv 11%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 66%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 54%, Ruh Lviv 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights