Shakhtar Donetsk 1-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (64%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shakhtar Donetsk face Ruh Lviv.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ruh Lviv make the trip to Arena Lviv to face Shakhtar Donetsk in Premier League (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's record over their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 3.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 9W 0D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.70 PPG). They are averaging 3.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Ruh Lviv (all games): 2W 6D 2L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ruh Lviv's form when playing away from home: 1W 7D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Shakhtar Donetsk's 2.30 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Ruh Lviv's 1.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record in our data favours Shakhtar Donetsk, who have won 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against Ruh Lviv — Ruh Lviv have 0 wins, with 1 draw.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 7 Apr 2024, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 Ruh Lviv — a Shakhtar Donetsk win.
The head-to-head data gives Shakhtar Donetsk an edge — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Shakhtar Donetsk half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Ruh Lviv half-time and goal-timing data (last 43 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 51% versus Ruh Lviv 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 58% | Ruh Lviv 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.07 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.893 / defence 0.915 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.905 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.231 / away 1.031. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack rating of 1.893 — their 2.07 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 43 games and Ruh Lviv's last 43.
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 64% | Draw 22% | Ruh Lviv 13%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.55 | Draw 4.51 | Ruh Lviv 7.47. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (64%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Shakhtar Donetsk's last 10 home games and Ruh Lviv's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shakhtar Donetsk 50% (last 10 home games) | Ruh Lviv 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, matchday 15 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 1 December 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 64% | Draw 22% | Ruh Lviv 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 2.07 / Ruh Lviv 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.893 / def 0.915 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.905 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.231 / away 1.031 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Ruh Lviv xG
51%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv FAQs
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Shakhtar Donetsk 1 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv is a Premier League fixture (matchday 15) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 64% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 13% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk's attack at 1.89x the league average against Ruh Lviv's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 2.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ruh Lviv's attack (0.91x) against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from Shakhtar Donetsk's last 43 games and Ruh Lviv's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (10.7%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
64%
1.55
22%
4.51
13%
7.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.93
0.85
Ruh Lviv xG
1.55
64%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
7.47
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
13%
7.93
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
2%
59.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.85 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 31W 7D 5L record — W-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 16W 19D 8L from 43 games, 1.56 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ruh Lviv.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 2.50 PPG from their last 22 home games (18W 1D 3L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 8W 9D 5L from their last 22 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.33 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 1.42 scored and 0.93 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's scoring rate against Ruh Lviv's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Ruh Lviv in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk (Home) vs Ruh Lviv (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv Form FAQs
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 31W 7D 5L in their last 43 games (2.33 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 16W 19D 8L in their last 43 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.50 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 5 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won Ruh Lviv 0-4 Shakhtar Donetsk on 28 Sep 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 4W 1D 0L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ruh Lviv — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
3
Draws
0
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, Ruh Lviv have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 5 April 2026: Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 50%, Ruh Lviv 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 41% (Ruh Lviv).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 36%; Ruh Lviv in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ruh Lviv Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 54% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 41% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 82% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 64% of Ruh Lviv's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk and Ruh Lviv finished level at 1-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.07 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.85 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.89 / defence 0.92 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.91 / defence 0.89, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 64% | Draw 22% | Ruh Lviv 13%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 58%, Ruh Lviv 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (43 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (43 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.55 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.