LNZ Cherkasy 1-2 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis

🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this LNZ Cherkasy vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Veres Rivne make the trip to Cherkasy Arena to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Saturday 30 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.

Form

LNZ Cherkasy (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

LNZ Cherkasy at Cherkasy Arena this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at Cherkasy Arena than their overall form suggests.

Veres Rivne have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: D D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for LNZ Cherkasy, 1.20 for Veres Rivne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — LNZ Cherkasy lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 0.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading & In-Play

LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (44 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Veres Rivne — key trading statistics (44 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 48% versus Veres Rivne 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 43% | Veres Rivne 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.06 xG and Veres Rivne 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.934 / defence 0.997 | Veres Rivne attack 0.859 / defence 0.953. League average goals — home 1.188 / away 1.030. Data: 44 LNZ Cherkasy games / 44 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 38% | Draw 33% | Veres Rivne 29%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Veres Rivne 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 1.94 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: LNZ Cherkasy 40% | Veres Rivne 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights