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Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Obolon'-Brovar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Obolon'-Brovar 3-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.49 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.59 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.42 / defence 0.63 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.75 / defence 1.38, drawn from 57/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 78% | Draw 16% | Obolon'-Brovar 6%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 78%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 57%, Obolon'-Brovar 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights