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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Shakhtar Donetsk edge out Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.61 xG and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.02 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.59 / defence 0.78 against Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.10 / defence 0.85, drawn from 49/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 50% | Draw 26% | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 23%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 52%, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.81. Form held, and they took the win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights