Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shakhtar Donetsk face LNZ Cherkasy.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk host LNZ Cherkasy at in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shakhtar Donetsk — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Shakhtar Donetsk are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.30). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Shakhtar Donetsk's 20% and LNZ Cherkasy's 10% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Head to Head
Shakhtar Donetsk hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for LNZ Cherkasy, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shakhtar Donetsk and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Shakhtar Donetsk 38% | LNZ Cherkasy 18%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 56% | LNZ Cherkasy 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.09 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.020 / defence 0.998 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.836 / defence 0.922. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.103. Data: 34 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 34 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 38% | Draw 33% | LNZ Cherkasy 29%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | LNZ Cherkasy 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 20% | LNZ Cherkasy 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 38% | Draw 33% | LNZ Cherkasy 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 1.09 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.020 / def 0.998 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.836 / def 0.922 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.92
LNZ Cherkasy xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 September 2026.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 38% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (6 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 4W | Draws 1 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Shakhtar Donetsk's attack at 1.02x the league average against LNZ Cherkasy's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, LNZ Cherkasy's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
38%
2.64
33%
3.01
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
2.01
0.92
LNZ Cherkasy xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
10%
10.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.3 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.92 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Shakhtar Donetsk have picked up 2.29 PPG on a 24W 6D 4L record — L-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
LNZ Cherkasy's form line: 19W 7D 8L from 34 games, 1.88 PPG, last five W-D-L-W-L. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Shakhtar Donetsk are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against LNZ Cherkasy.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 2.31 PPG from 16 outings (12W 1D 3L).
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 10W 2D 4L from 16 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.21 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 1.21 scored and 0.62 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's scoring rate against LNZ Cherkasy's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy in 18%.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games; LNZ Cherkasy in 65% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 24W 6D 4L in their last 34 games (2.29 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 19W 7D 8L in their last 34 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.31 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 65%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting LNZ Cherkasy specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
Draws
1
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Shakhtar Donetsk 31% BTTS, LNZ Cherkasy 19%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Shakhtar Donetsk) and 38% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Shakhtar Donetsk keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 62%; LNZ Cherkasy in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent matches and 19% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Shakhtar Donetsk's recent games and 38% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.