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Dominant LNZ Cherkasy run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Shakhtar Donetsk.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

LNZ Cherkasy beat Shakhtar Donetsk 1-4 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 1.46 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.82 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy outscored their 0.82 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.16 / defence 0.74 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.87 / defence 1.07, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 52% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 21%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a LNZ Cherkasy win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 51%, LNZ Cherkasy 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.14. Form was overturned, with LNZ Cherkasy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.59 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights