🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shakhtar Donetsk face LNZ Cherkasy.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Shakhtar Donetsk host LNZ Cherkasy at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 5 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Shakhtar Donetsk — All Games: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Shakhtar Donetsk's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Arena Lviv this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Lviv.

Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Shakhtar Donetsk are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 0.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

Head to Head

Shakhtar Donetsk hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 4 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for LNZ Cherkasy, with 0 draws in between.

The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2025, ended 4–1 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Shakhtar Donetsk and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 4.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

Trading Patterns

Shakhtar Donetsk in-play and half-time data (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 49% versus LNZ Cherkasy 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shakhtar Donetsk 51% | LNZ Cherkasy 27%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 1.46 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.158 / defence 0.739 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.867 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.280. Shakhtar Donetsk's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 37 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 37 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 52% | Draw 27% | LNZ Cherkasy 21%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | LNZ Cherkasy 4.76. Shakhtar Donetsk hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 50% | LNZ Cherkasy 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights