Shakhtar Donetsk 6-0 Inhulets – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (81%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shakhtar Donetsk face Inhulets.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 14 as Shakhtar Donetsk welcome Inhulets to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 November 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — a 2.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Lviv, Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 9W 0D 1L this season (10 games, 2.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Inhulets — All Games: 0W 4D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.40 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Shakhtar Donetsk have the edge — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Shakhtar Donetsk: 4 wins from 4 previous clashes against 0 for Inhulets, with 0 draws across those contests.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2023, ended 2–0 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
The historical record gives Shakhtar Donetsk a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Shakhtar Donetsk in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Inhulets in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shakhtar Donetsk 54% versus Inhulets 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shakhtar Donetsk 54% | Inhulets 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shakhtar Donetsk 2.93 xG and Inhulets 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.716 / defence 0.995 | Inhulets attack 0.746 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.030. Shakhtar Donetsk carry an above-average attack strength of 1.716 — their λ of 2.93 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Inhulets bring a strong defensive rating of 1.421 — this is suppressing Shakhtar Donetsk's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 Shakhtar Donetsk games / 13 Inhulets games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 81% | Draw 13% | Inhulets 7%. Fair-value odds: Shakhtar Donetsk 1.23 | Draw 7.69 | Inhulets 14.29. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (81%) — a 74pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.69. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.69 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 81% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.69 combined xG gives a 71% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shakhtar Donetsk 60% | Inhulets 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shakhtar Donetsk 81% | Draw 13% | Inhulets 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 51% | xG Shakhtar Donetsk 2.93 / Inhulets 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.716 / def 0.995 | Inhulets attack 0.746 / def 1.421 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.030 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (81%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.93
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Inhulets xG
51%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets kick off?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Shakhtar Donetsk 6 - 0 Inhulets.
Where is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets part of?
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Our statistical model gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 81% chance of winning, Inhulets a 7% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets will score (BTTS).
Will Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets?
Record (4 meetings): Shakhtar Donetsk 4W | Draws 0 | Inhulets 0W.
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets in?
Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-W-W. Inhulets (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shakhtar Donetsk's attack rating (1.72) and Inhulets's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.93 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inhulets's attack versus Shakhtar Donetsk's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.7%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
81%
1.24
13%
7.94
7%
15.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.93
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
Total xG
3.69
0.77
Inhulets xG
1.24
81%
Home win
7.94
13%
Draw
15.17
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
5%
18.65
Win to Nil
38%
2.66
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.4 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets expected to score?
The model projects 2.93 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.77 for Inhulets, a combined total of 3.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 81%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shakhtar Donetsk come into this having played 13 games, going 8W 2D 3L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Inhulets sit at 0.46 PPG from 13 outings (0W 6D 7L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.54 PPG clear of Inhulets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shakhtar Donetsk's home form reads 5W 0D 1L across 6 games on their own ground, a 2.50 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — Shakhtar Donetsk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Inhulets have taken 0.33 points per game from 6 outings (0W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shakhtar Donetsk are averaging 2.38 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Inhulets are on 0.69 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 13 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
Inhulets
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets in coming into this match?
Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 8W 2D 3L in their last 13 games (2.00 PPG), while Inhulets have gone 0W 6D 7L in their last 13 (0.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shakhtar Donetsk at home or Inhulets away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shakhtar Donetsk at home: 2.50 PPG; Inhulets away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Shakhtar Donetsk or Inhulets been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shakhtar Donetsk have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Inhulets in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shakhtar Donetsk have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Nov 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shakhtar Donetsk's record when hosting Inhulets specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
0
Draws
0
Inhulets
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets?
From 6 meetings on record, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, Inhulets have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Inhulets 1-4 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Inhulets see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shakhtar Donetsk 67%, Inhulets 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 83% for Shakhtar Donetsk and 50% for Inhulets. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inhulets in 33%; Inhulets in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shakhtar Donetsk home games / Inhulets away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shakhtar Donetsk play Inhulets?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shakhtar Donetsk's games and 50% of Inhulets's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shakhtar Donetsk vs Inhulets usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 83% of Shakhtar Donetsk's matches and 50% of Inhulets's.
Do Shakhtar Donetsk and Inhulets tend to score early?
Shakhtar Donetsk have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Inhulets in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 6-0 hammering of Inhulets.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Inhulets 6-0 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.93 xG and Inhulets 0.77 xG, a combined 3.69. The scoreboard read 6-0 for 6 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.72 / defence 0.99 against Inhulets attack 0.75 / defence 1.42, drawn from 42/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 81% | Draw 13% | Inhulets 7%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 81%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 50% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 54%, Inhulets 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Inhulets's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.46. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 3.17 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Inhulets (home/away splits) shipped 6 against a 1.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.