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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 20, as Shakhtar Donetsk and Kryvbas KR drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Shakhtar Donetsk 2.03 xG and Kryvbas KR 0.78 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.61 / defence 0.83 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Shakhtar Donetsk 67% | Draw 20% | Kryvbas KR 13%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shakhtar Donetsk 56%, Kryvbas KR 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.54 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights