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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Zorya Luhansk edge out Ruh Lviv 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zorya Luhansk beat Ruh Lviv 1-2 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.50 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.81 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.87 / defence 1.33 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.07 / defence 1.34, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 31% | Draw 24% | Zorya Luhansk 44%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 34%, Zorya Luhansk 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did.

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.05 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights