Ruh Lviv 3-1 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ruh Lviv (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ruh Lviv face Veres Rivne.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Veres Rivne travel to Arena Lviv to take on Ruh Lviv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 27 April 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 1W 8D 1L at Arena Lviv — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Arena Lviv this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Veres Rivne stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Veres Rivne have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Ruh Lviv carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Ruh Lviv, 0 for Veres Rivne and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Oct 2023, ended 5–2 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Veres Rivne in-play tendencies (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 56% versus Veres Rivne 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ruh Lviv 40% | Veres Rivne 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 1.06 xG and Veres Rivne 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.950 / defence 0.822 | Veres Rivne attack 0.668 / defence 1.010. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.281. Data: 55 Ruh Lviv games / 54 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 43% | Draw 34% | Veres Rivne 23%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 2.33 | Draw 2.94 | Veres Rivne 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Veres Rivne's lower xG of 0.70 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Ruh Lviv as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ruh Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Ruh Lviv 60% | Veres Rivne 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 43% | Draw 34% | Veres Rivne 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 34% | xG Ruh Lviv 1.06 / Veres Rivne 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.950 / def 0.822 | Veres Rivne attack 0.668 / def 1.010 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Ruh Lviv (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Veres Rivne xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Ruh Lviv 3 - 1 Veres Rivne.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 43% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 23% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Ruh Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne?
Record (5 meetings): Ruh Lviv 2W | Draws 3 | Veres Rivne 0W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Veres Rivne (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.95) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Ruh Lviv's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
43%
2.33
34%
2.94
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
1.77
0.70
Veres Rivne xG
2.33
43%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.96
66%
BTTS No
1.51
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
35%
2.90
Win to Nil
21%
4.71
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 12.0 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.8 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 0.70 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Ruh Lviv have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 17W 22D 16L record — W-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Veres Rivne's form line: 12W 15D 28L from 55 games, 0.93 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ruh Lviv are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Veres Rivne.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Ruh Lviv have posted 1.38 PPG from 26 outings (7W 15D 4L).
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 5W 6D 15L from 26 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ruh Lviv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ruh Lviv are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.13 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 17W 22D 16L in their last 55 games (1.33 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 12W 15D 28L in their last 55 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Veres Rivne away?
Ruh Lviv's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.38 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when Ruh Lviv won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ruh Lviv's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ruh Lviv
4
Draws
2
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne?
From 10 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 4, Veres Rivne have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Ruh Lviv 0-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 62%, Veres Rivne 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Ruh Lviv and 35% for Veres Rivne.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 27% of games; Veres Rivne in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 38% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 35% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ruh Lviv cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Veres Rivne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Veres Rivne 3-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.06 xG and Veres Rivne 0.70 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Ruh Lviv beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.95 / defence 0.82 against Veres Rivne attack 0.67 / defence 1.01, drawn from 55/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 43% | Draw 34% | Veres Rivne 23%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 40%, Veres Rivne 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.