Veres Rivne 1-1 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dnipro-1 make the trip to Stadion Avanhard to face Veres Rivne in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 April 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Veres Rivne have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Veres Rivne's home record at Stadion Avanhard: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dnipro-1 (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 6W 3D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Veres Rivne against 1.40 for Dnipro-1. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, Dnipro-1 have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Veres Rivne's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Dnipro-1 winning.
It is worth noting that Dnipro-1 have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
Veres Rivne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Dnipro-1 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Veres Rivne 48% versus Dnipro-1 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Veres Rivne 43% | Dnipro-1 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Veres Rivne 1.00 xG and Dnipro-1 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Veres Rivne attack 1.078 / defence 1.046 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.987 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.100 / away 1.302. Data: 53 Veres Rivne games / 54 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Veres Rivne 28% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 44%. Fair-value odds: Veres Rivne 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Dnipro-1 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dnipro-1 as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Veres Rivne 60% | Dnipro-1 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Apr 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Veres Rivne 28% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Veres Rivne 1.00 / Dnipro-1 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Veres Rivne attack 1.078 / def 1.046 | Dnipro-1 attack 0.987 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.100 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Veres Rivne xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Dnipro-1 xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 21 April 2024 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1?
Veres Rivne 1 - 1 Dnipro-1.
Where is Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Veres Rivne a 28% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1?
Record (4 meetings): Veres Rivne 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 4W.
What form are Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 in?
Veres Rivne (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Veres Rivne's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Dnipro-1's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — Dnipro-1's attack (0.99x) against Veres Rivne's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 53/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
28%
3.57
28%
3.63
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
0 – 0
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Veres Rivne xG
Total xG
2.35
1.34
Dnipro-1 xG
3.57
28%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
7%
13.67
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Veres Rivne and 1.34 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 54 outings, Veres Rivne have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 12W 14D 28L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dnipro-1's form line: 33W 12D 9L from 54 games, 2.06 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dnipro-1 are the form team by 1.13 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Veres Rivne.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Veres Rivne have posted 1.04 PPG from 27 outings (7W 7D 13L).
On the road, Dnipro-1 have gone 17W 6D 4L from 27 away games — 2.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Veres Rivne are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 1.76 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Veres Rivne
Blended
Dnipro-1
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Veres Rivne have gone 12W 14D 28L in their last 54 games (0.93 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 33W 12D 9L in their last 54 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Veres Rivne at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (2.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Veres Rivne at home: 1.04 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 2.11 PPG.
Have Veres Rivne or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Veres Rivne have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Veres Rivne have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Dnipro-1 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Veres Rivne
1
Draws
4
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1?
From 5 meetings on record, Veres Rivne have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Veres Rivne 1-1 Dnipro-1.
Who has won more matches between Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Veres Rivne 56%, Dnipro-1 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Veres Rivne) and 48% (Dnipro-1).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 44%; Veres Rivne have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Veres Rivne home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Veres Rivne play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Veres Rivne's recent matches and 48% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Veres Rivne vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Veres Rivne's recent games and 48% of Dnipro-1's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Veres Rivne have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 25, as Veres Rivne and Dnipro-1 drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Veres Rivne 1.00 xG and Dnipro-1 1.34 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Veres Rivne attack 1.08 / defence 1.05 against Dnipro-1 attack 0.99 / defence 0.85, drawn from 53/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Veres Rivne 28% | Draw 28% | Dnipro-1 44%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Veres Rivne 43%, Dnipro-1 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Veres Rivne's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.