Ruh Lviv 0-4 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shakhtar Donetsk (58%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ruh Lviv face Shakhtar Donetsk.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk meet at Arena Lviv in Premier League, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 September 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Ruh Lviv (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Ruh Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Arena Lviv, Ruh Lviv have gone 2W 3D 5L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Shakhtar Donetsk away from home this season: 6W 4D 0L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shakhtar Donetsk are 1.40 PPG clear of Ruh Lviv in recent Premier League fixtures (2.20 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Shakhtar Donetsk, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 3 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Shakhtar Donetsk have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Ruh Lviv — key trading statistics (36 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Shakhtar Donetsk — key trading statistics (36 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ruh Lviv 39% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Ruh Lviv 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ruh Lviv 0.91 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ruh Lviv attack 0.870 / defence 1.267 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.187 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.194. Data: 36 Ruh Lviv games / 36 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 19% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 58%. Fair-value odds: Ruh Lviv 5.26 | Draw 4.35 | Shakhtar Donetsk 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Shakhtar Donetsk (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Ruh Lviv 50% | Shakhtar Donetsk 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ruh Lviv 19% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 50% | xG Ruh Lviv 0.91 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Ruh Lviv attack 0.870 / def 1.267 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.187 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Ruh Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
50%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Ruh Lviv 0 - 4 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Ruh Lviv a 19% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 58% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (7 meetings): Ruh Lviv 0W | Draws 3 | Shakhtar Donetsk 4W.
What form are Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Ruh Lviv's attack at 0.87x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shakhtar Donetsk's attack (1.19x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
19%
5.34
23%
4.36
58%
1.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.71
1.80
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
5.34
19%
Home win
4.36
23%
Draw
1.71
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
40%
2.48
Win to Nil
3%
32.20
24%
4.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 12.0 | 10.8 | 6.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.80 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Ruh Lviv's recent record stands at 10W 11D 15L from 36 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 22W 10D 4L across 36 games — 2.11 PPG, with D-W-W-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 0.97 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Ruh Lviv heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Ruh Lviv have managed 5W 6D 8L from 19 games — 1.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 10W 7D 2L across 19 trips, a 1.95 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Ruh Lviv are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.19 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Shakhtar Donetsk in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ruh Lviv
Early Season
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Ruh Lviv have gone 10W 11D 15L in their last 36 games (1.14 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 22W 10D 4L in their last 36 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ruh Lviv at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ruh Lviv at home: 1.11 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Ruh Lviv or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ruh Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-4 on 28 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ruh Lviv have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shakhtar Donetsk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Ruh Lviv
3
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 9 meetings on record, Ruh Lviv have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ruh Lviv 42%, Shakhtar Donetsk 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Ruh Lviv and 37% for Shakhtar Donetsk.
On the defensive side: Ruh Lviv keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 47%; Ruh Lviv have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ruh Lviv home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ruh Lviv play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Ruh Lviv's recent matches and 47% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Ruh Lviv vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Ruh Lviv's recent games and 37% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ruh Lviv and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Ruh Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Ruh Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat Ruh Lviv 0-4 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 0.91 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.80 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Ruh Lviv fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.80 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.87 / defence 1.27 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.19 / defence 0.88, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 19% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 58%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 58%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 28%, Shakhtar Donetsk 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (36 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (36 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 1.14. Form held, and they took the win. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.