Ruh Lviv vs Polessya – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ruh Lviv and Polessya share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ruh Lviv and Polessya finished level at 1-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.27 xG and Polessya 1.00 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.99 / defence 0.80 against Polessya attack 1.22 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 41% | Draw 33% | Polessya 27%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 36%, Polessya 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Polessya's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.55 PPG, Polessya 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights