Ruh Lviv vs Polessya – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Ruh Lviv's attack rating (0.99) and Polessya's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Polessya's attack (1.22x) against Ruh Lviv's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.00.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 1-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ruh Lviv Win
41%
2.47
33%
3.07
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Ruh Lviv xG
Total xG
2.27
1.00
Polessya xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
15%
6.68
8%
13.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.3 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.5 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ruh Lviv vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Ruh Lviv and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Ruh Lviv and 1.00 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Ruh Lviv vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.