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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 23, as Ruh Lviv and Kolos Kovalivka drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Ruh Lviv 1.14 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.31 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ruh Lviv attack 0.98 / defence 1.26 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.85 / defence 0.97, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Ruh Lviv 32% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 41%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ruh Lviv 33%, Kolos Kovalivka 25%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Ruh Lviv 1.10 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights