Polessya 1-1 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Polessya vs Veres Rivne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Polessya host Veres Rivne at Stadion Avanhard in Premier League (matchday 16). Kick-off is Friday 1 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Polessya — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Polessya at home: 4W 1D 1L from their last 6 home games — 2.17 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Veres Rivne have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Veres Rivne away from home: 0W 2D 8L from their last 10 away games — 0.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.20 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Polessya have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Polessya, 0 for Veres Rivne and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Jul 2023, ended Polessya 2–0 Veres Rivne — a Polessya win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Polessya trading profile (last 15 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
Veres Rivne trading profile (last 15 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 40% versus Veres Rivne 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 47% | Veres Rivne 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.32 xG and Veres Rivne 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.097 / defence 0.996 | Veres Rivne attack 0.619 / defence 1.047. League average goals — home 1.146 / away 1.203. Veres Rivne's attack rating of 0.619 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.74. Data: built from Polessya's last 15 games and Veres Rivne's last 44.
Result probabilities: Polessya 50% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 20%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 2.02 | Draw 3.32 | Veres Rivne 4.92. Polessya hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Polessya's last 6 home games and Veres Rivne's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Polessya 67% (last 6 home games) | Veres Rivne 20% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, matchday 16 | Venue: Stadion Avanhard • Kick-off: Friday 1 December 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 50% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Polessya 1.32 / Veres Rivne 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.097 / def 0.996 | Veres Rivne attack 0.619 / def 1.047 | league avg home 1.146 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Polessya (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Veres Rivne xG
39%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Polessya vs Veres Rivne FAQs
What time does Polessya vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Polessya vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Friday 1 December 2023 at Stadion Avanhard.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Veres Rivne?
Polessya 1 - 1 Veres Rivne.
Where is Polessya vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Avanhard.
What competition is Polessya vs Veres Rivne part of?
Polessya vs Veres Rivne is a Premier League fixture (matchday 16) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 50% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Polessya and Veres Rivne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Polessya vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Polessya's attack at 1.10x the league average against Veres Rivne's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Polessya's defence, projects 0.74 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Polessya's last 15 games and Veres Rivne's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
50%
2.02
30%
3.32
20%
4.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.06
0.74
Veres Rivne xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.92
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
24%
4.24
5%
18.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 9.5 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 12.5 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 8.2 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Polessya vs Veres Rivne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Polessya and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Polessya and 0.74 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Polessya come into this having played 15 games, going 9W 3D 3L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 0.93 PPG from 15 outings (3W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five.
Polessya carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.07 PPG clear of Veres Rivne — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Polessya's home form reads 4W 1D 1L across their last 6 home games, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 0.33 points per game from their last 6 away games (0W 2D 4L). That's a step down from their 0.93 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Veres Rivne's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Polessya are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.67 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 1.33 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
Polessya (Home) vs Veres Rivne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Polessya
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Polessya vs Veres Rivne Form FAQs
What form are Polessya and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 9W 3D 3L in their last 15 games (2.00 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 3W 5D 7L in their last 15 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Veres Rivne away?
Polessya's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 2.17 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 0.33 PPG.
Have Polessya or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 47% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to July 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 11 Mar 2025, when Veres Rivne won Veres Rivne 5-1 Polessya.
Polessya's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Polessya
2
Draws
1
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Polessya vs Veres Rivne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Veres Rivne?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Polessya have won 4, Veres Rivne have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Veres Rivne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Polessya 2-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Veres Rivne?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Veres Rivne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 67%, Veres Rivne 17% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Polessya and 17% for Veres Rivne.
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne in 33%; Veres Rivne in 83%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Polessya vs Veres Rivne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Polessya and Veres Rivne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Polessya's recent matches and 17% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Polessya and Veres Rivne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Polessya's recent games and 17% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Veres Rivne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Polessya's recent matches and 50% of Veres Rivne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Polessya and Veres Rivne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya and Veres Rivne finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Avanhard, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.32 xG and Veres Rivne 0.74 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.10 / defence 1.00 against Veres Rivne attack 0.62 / defence 1.05, drawn from 15/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 50% | Draw 30% | Veres Rivne 20%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 47%, Veres Rivne 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (15 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (15 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 1 against a 0.17 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.