Dnipro-1 1-2 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava meet at Dnipro Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 2 December 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dnipro-1's overall Premier League record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dnipro-1, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dnipro-1 at Dnipro Arena this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dnipro Arena. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dnipro Arena this season.
Vorskla Poltava have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Dnipro-1's 2.70 PPG return is 1.70 points per game ahead of Vorskla Poltava's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Dnipro-1, 1 for Vorskla Poltava and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2023, ended 3–2 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dnipro-1 — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava — key trading statistics (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dnipro-1 49% versus Vorskla Poltava 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dnipro-1 58% | Vorskla Poltava 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dnipro-1 1.41 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dnipro-1 attack 1.353 / defence 0.887 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.841 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 1.135 / away 1.200. Dnipro-1 carry an above-average attack strength of 1.353 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 45 Dnipro-1 games / 45 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dnipro-1 48% | Draw 30% | Vorskla Poltava 23%. Fair-value odds: Dnipro-1 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Vorskla Poltava 4.35. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.30 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Dnipro-1 50% | Vorskla Poltava 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Dnipro Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Dec 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dnipro-1 48% | Draw 30% | Vorskla Poltava 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Dnipro-1 1.41 / Vorskla Poltava 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Dnipro-1 attack 1.353 / def 0.887 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.841 / def 0.919 | league avg home 1.135 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Dnipro-1 xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Vorskla Poltava xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 December 2023 at Dnipro Arena.
What was the final score in Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Dnipro-1 1 - 2 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Dnipro Arena.
What competition is Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Dnipro-1 a 48% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (5 meetings): Dnipro-1 2W | Draws 2 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava in?
Dnipro-1 (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dnipro-1's attacking strength (1.35x league average) is weighed against Vorskla Poltava's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. Flip it around — Vorskla Poltava's attack (0.84x) against Dnipro-1's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
48%
2.10
30%
3.36
23%
4.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Dnipro-1 xG
Total xG
2.30
0.90
Vorskla Poltava xG
2.10
48%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.43
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
6%
18.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.6 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.9 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Dnipro-1 and 0.90 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dnipro-1's recent record stands at 31W 7D 7L from 45 games, a 2.22 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Dnipro-1 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 17L across 45 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-D-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dnipro-1 by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vorskla Poltava heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dnipro-1 have managed 15W 4D 3L from 22 games — 2.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vorskla Poltava's away record stands at 8W 5D 9L across 22 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dnipro-1 are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.18 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dnipro-1
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Dnipro-1 have gone 31W 7D 7L in their last 45 games (2.22 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 18W 10D 17L in their last 45 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dnipro-1 at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Dnipro-1's home record (2.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dnipro-1 at home: 2.23 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Dnipro-1 or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dnipro-1 have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 December 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dnipro-1 won 5-1 on 27 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dnipro-1 have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Dnipro-1
2
Draws
2
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava?
From 6 meetings on record, Dnipro-1 have won 2, Vorskla Poltava have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 2 December 2023, when Dnipro-1 1-2 Vorskla Poltava.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dnipro-1 54%, Vorskla Poltava 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Dnipro-1) and 50% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Vorskla Poltava in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dnipro-1 home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dnipro-1 play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Dnipro-1's recent matches and 54% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dnipro-1 vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Dnipro-1's recent games and 50% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dnipro-1 and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Dnipro-1 have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Vorskla Poltava defy the odds to beat Dnipro-1 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vorskla Poltava beat Dnipro-1 1-2 at Dnipro Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dnipro-1 1.41 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.90 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dnipro-1 attack 1.35 / defence 0.89 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.84 / defence 0.92, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dnipro-1 48% | Draw 30% | Vorskla Poltava 23%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Vorskla Poltava win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dnipro-1 58%, Vorskla Poltava 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dnipro-1's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 1.42. Form was overturned, with Vorskla Poltava winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.