Polessya 0-0 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shakhtar Donetsk make the trip to Tsentralnyi Stadion to face Polessya in Premier League, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 October 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Polessya (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Polessya have posted 4W 3D 3L at Tsentralnyi Stadion — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Shakhtar Donetsk have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record: 6W 4D 0L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.90 PPG for Polessya against 2.10 for Shakhtar Donetsk. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Polessya, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Shakhtar Donetsk — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 1–0 with Polessya winning.
The historical record gives Polessya a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Polessya goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Shakhtar Donetsk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 53% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 34% | Shakhtar Donetsk 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.07 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.111 / defence 0.811 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.260 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.168 / away 1.334. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.36 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Polessya games / 38 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 29% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 43%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shakhtar Donetsk are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: Polessya 40% | Shakhtar Donetsk 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 29% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 49% | xG Polessya 1.07 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.111 / def 0.811 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.260 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.168 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 October 2025 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What was the final score in Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Polessya 0 - 0 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 29% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Polessya and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (4 meetings): Polessya 3W | Draws 1 | Shakhtar Donetsk 0W.
What form are Polessya and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
Polessya (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Polessya's attack at 1.11x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shakhtar Donetsk's attack (1.26x) against Polessya's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
29%
3.42
28%
3.63
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.44
1.36
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
7%
13.37
15%
6.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Polessya and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Polessya and 1.36 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Polessya come into this having played 38 games, going 17W 12D 9L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-W. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shakhtar Donetsk sit at 2.08 PPG from 38 outings (23W 10D 5L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Shakhtar Donetsk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shakhtar Donetsk carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.42 PPG clear of Polessya — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Polessya's home form reads 7W 8D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Shakhtar Donetsk have taken 1.95 points per game from 19 outings (10W 7D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Polessya are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.21 scored and 0.89 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking output running into Polessya's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Shakhtar Donetsk in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 17W 12D 9L in their last 38 games (1.66 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 23W 10D 5L in their last 38 (2.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.53 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 1.95 PPG.
Have Polessya or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Polessya have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Shakhtar Donetsk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Polessya
2
Draws
1
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 7 meetings on record, Polessya have won 4, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Shakhtar Donetsk 0-2 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 53%, Shakhtar Donetsk 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Polessya and 37% for Shakhtar Donetsk.
On the defensive side: Polessya keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 47%; Polessya have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Polessya's recent matches and 47% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Polessya vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Polessya's recent games and 37% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Polessya's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Polessya and Shakhtar Donetsk finished level at 0-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.07 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.36 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Polessya fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Shakhtar Donetsk landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 1.11 / defence 0.81 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.26 / defence 0.83, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Polessya 29% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 43%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 34%, Shakhtar Donetsk 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Polessya's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.66. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Polessya (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.