Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi meet at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Polessya have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Polessya have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Polessya's home record at Tsentralnyi Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's overall Premier League record this term: 3W 6D 1L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Polessya's 2.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Polessya, 1 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Polessya — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — key trading statistics (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 35% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 44% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 1.37 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.261 / defence 0.999 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.244 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.103. Polessya carry an above-average attack strength of 1.261 — their λ of 1.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have an above-average attack strength of 1.244 — the away xG of 1.37 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Polessya games / 34 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 36% | Draw 28% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 36%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Polessya 70% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 36% | Draw 28% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Polessya 1.37 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.261 / def 0.999 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.244 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
Where is Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 36% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (2 meetings): Polessya 0W | Draws 1 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1W.
What form are Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Polessya (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Polessya's attack rating (1.26) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack (1.24x) against Polessya's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
36%
2.77
28%
3.57
36%
2.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Polessya xG
Total xG
2.74
1.37
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.78
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
9%
10.98
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Polessya and 1.37 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Polessya's recent record stands at 21W 5D 8L from 34 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Polessya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 15L across 34 games — 1.15 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Polessya by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Polessya have managed 9W 4D 3L from 16 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record stands at 5W 4D 7L across 16 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Polessya are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 0.74 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.24 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Early Season
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 21W 5D 8L in their last 34 games (2.00 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 9D 15L in their last 34 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Polessya's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 1.94 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Polessya or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Polessya
1
Draws
1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 2 meetings on record, Polessya have won 0, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3-2 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 44%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Polessya) and 56% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Polessya keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 31%; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Polessya's recent matches and 38% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Polessya's recent games and 56% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.