Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi meet at Tsentralnyi Stadion in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Polessya have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Polessya, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Polessya's home record at Tsentralnyi Stadion: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Polessya's 2.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Polessya, 1 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2026, ended 2–3 with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Polessya — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — key trading statistics (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Polessya 37% versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 37%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Polessya 45% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Polessya 2.20 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Polessya attack 1.329 / defence 0.905 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.065 / defence 1.226. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.092. Polessya carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 2.20 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi bring a strong defensive rating of 1.226 — this is suppressing Polessya's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Polessya games / 38 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Polessya 62% | Draw 23% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 15%. Fair-value odds: Polessya 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Polessya (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.20 / 1.05) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Polessya at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.25 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Polessya 70% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Tsentralnyi Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Dec 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Polessya 62% | Draw 23% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 60% | xG Polessya 2.20 / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Polessya attack 1.329 / def 0.905 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.065 / def 1.226 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Polessya (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.20
Polessya xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi kick off?
Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 5 December 2026 at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
Where is Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi being played?
The match is being played at Tsentralnyi Stadion.
What competition is Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi part of?
Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our statistical model gives Polessya a 62% chance of winning, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi will score (BTTS).
Will Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Record (2 meetings): Polessya 0W | Draws 1 | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1W.
What form are Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in?
Polessya (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Polessya's attack rating (1.33) and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 2.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack (1.06x) against Polessya's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.32
15%
6.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.20
Polessya xG
Total xG
3.25
1.05
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
6.56
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
11%
9.03
Win to Nil
22%
4.65
2%
59.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi expected to score?
The model projects 2.20 expected goals for Polessya and 1.05 for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Polessya's recent record stands at 23W 6D 9L from 38 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Polessya is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, meanwhile, have gone 10W 10D 18L across 38 games — 1.05 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Polessya by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Polessya have managed 11W 4D 3L from 18 games — 2.06 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Polessya come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Polessya are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are on 1.13 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Defensively: Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Polessya
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in coming into this match?
Polessya have gone 23W 6D 9L in their last 38 games (1.97 PPG), while Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 10D 18L in their last 38 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Polessya at home or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away?
Polessya's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Polessya at home: 2.06 PPG; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Polessya or Epitsentr Dunayivtsi been keeping clean sheets recently?
Polessya have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Polessya
1
Draws
1
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
From 2 meetings on record, Polessya have won 0, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3-2 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Polessya 44%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Polessya) and 61% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi).
On the defensive side: Polessya keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Polessya home games / Epitsentr Dunayivtsi away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Polessya play Epitsentr Dunayivtsi?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Polessya's recent matches and 39% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Polessya vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Polessya's recent games and 61% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Polessya and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi tend to score early?
Polessya have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.