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Polessya cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Chornomorets.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat Chornomorets 3-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Polessya 1.35 xG and Chornomorets 0.90 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Polessya beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Polessya attack 0.96 / defence 0.93 against Chornomorets attack 1.06 / defence 1.16, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Polessya 47% | Draw 28% | Chornomorets 25%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Polessya 39%, Chornomorets 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Polessya's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Chornomorets's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 0.96. Form held, and they took the win. Polessya (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Chornomorets (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights