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Dominant Veres Rivne run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Oleksandria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Veres Rivne beat Oleksandria 0-3 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.06 xG and Veres Rivne 1.16 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Veres Rivne outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.74 / defence 1.34 against Veres Rivne attack 0.78 / defence 1.16, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 33% | Draw 29% | Veres Rivne 38%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 44%, Veres Rivne 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oleksandria's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Veres Rivne's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.52 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights