Oleksandria 2-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Oleksandria vs Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Oleksandria welcome Lviv to NSK Olimpijs'kyj. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Oleksandria — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oleksandria's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at NSK Olimpijs'kyj this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lviv stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lviv's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Oleksandria carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Oleksandria, 0 for Lviv and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Oleksandria in-play and half-time data (24 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Lviv in-play and half-time data (24 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 50% versus Lviv 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Oleksandria 46% | Lviv 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 1.30 xG and Lviv 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.133 / defence 0.998 | Lviv attack 0.891 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.316. Data: 24 Oleksandria games / 25 Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 40% | Draw 27% | Lviv 33%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | Lviv 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Oleksandria as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Oleksandria offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Oleksandria 50% | Lviv 40%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 40% | Draw 27% | Lviv 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Oleksandria 1.30 / Lviv 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.133 / def 0.998 | Lviv attack 0.891 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.316 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Lviv xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs Lviv kick off?
Oleksandria vs Lviv kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 22 October 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs Lviv?
Oleksandria 2 - 0 Lviv.
Where is Oleksandria vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Oleksandria vs Lviv part of?
Oleksandria vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 40% chance of winning, Lviv a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Oleksandria and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Lviv?
Record (1 meetings): Oleksandria 0W | Draws 1 | Lviv 0W.
What form are Oleksandria and Lviv in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Lviv (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Oleksandria's attack at 1.13x the league average against Lviv's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Oleksandria's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
40%
2.52
27%
3.69
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.47
1.17
Lviv xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.99
50%
BTTS No
2.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
12%
8.11
9%
11.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.17 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 24 outings, Oleksandria have picked up 1.62 PPG on a 11W 6D 7L record — W-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lviv's form line: 5W 6D 13L from 24 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. It's still early in the season for Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Oleksandria are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lviv.
Venue Form
On home soil, Oleksandria have posted 1.80 PPG from 10 outings (6W 0D 4L).
On the road, Lviv have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 0.88 PPG overall record — Lviv travel well.
Goals in Recent Form
Oleksandria are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 0.79 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Early Season
Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and Lviv in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 11W 6D 7L in their last 24 games (1.62 PPG), while Lviv have gone 5W 6D 13L in their last 24 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or Lviv away?
Oleksandria's home record (1.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 1.80 PPG; Lviv away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Lviv in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
3 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Oleksandria have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
1
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and Lviv?
From 3 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, Lviv have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2023, when Lviv 0-1 Oleksandria.
Who has won more matches between Oleksandria and Lviv?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Oleksandria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Lviv see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 50%, Lviv 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Oleksandria) and 30% (Lviv).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Lviv in 40%; Lviv in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 40% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Oleksandria's recent games and 30% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and Lviv tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Lviv in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Oleksandria cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Lviv 2-0 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.30 xG and Lviv 1.17 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lviv landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.13 / defence 1.00 against Lviv attack 0.89 / defence 0.92, drawn from 24/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 40% | Draw 27% | Lviv 33%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 46%, Lviv 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (24 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lviv's trading profile (24 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.88. That form edge translated into the three points. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.