Dynamo Kyiv 1-1 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 9 as Dynamo Kyiv welcome Vorskla Poltava to Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Dynamo Kyiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky, Dynamo Kyiv have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vorskla Poltava stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Vorskla Poltava have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Dynamo Kyiv have won 0, Vorskla Poltava 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Dynamo Kyiv trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 38% versus Vorskla Poltava 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo Kyiv 54% | Vorskla Poltava 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.76 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.086 / defence 0.863 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.979 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.261 / away 1.293. Vorskla Poltava bring a strong defensive rating of 1.282 — this is suppressing Dynamo Kyiv's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Dynamo Kyiv games / 26 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 53% | Draw 24% | Vorskla Poltava 24%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Vorskla Poltava 4.17. Dynamo Kyiv hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo Kyiv at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dynamo Kyiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.85 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Dynamo Kyiv 20% | Vorskla Poltava 70%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 53% | Draw 24% | Vorskla Poltava 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 55% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.76 / Vorskla Poltava 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.086 / def 0.863 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.979 / def 1.282 | league avg home 1.261 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Vorskla Poltava xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Dynamo Kyiv 1 - 1 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 53% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (1 meetings): Dynamo Kyiv 0W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 1W.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dynamo Kyiv's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Vorskla Poltava's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Dynamo Kyiv's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.25
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.85
1.09
Vorskla Poltava xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
4%
24.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 1.09 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dynamo Kyiv come into this having played 24 games, going 17W 3D 4L for 2.25 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Vorskla Poltava sit at 1.50 PPG from 24 outings (10W 6D 8L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dynamo Kyiv carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Vorskla Poltava — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Dynamo Kyiv's home form reads 8W 2D 2L across 12 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Vorskla Poltava have taken 1.25 points per game from 12 outings (4W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 1.46 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Early Season
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 17W 3D 4L in their last 24 games (2.25 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 10W 6D 8L in their last 24 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.17 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Vorskla Poltava been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 58% of their recent games, Vorskla Poltava in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 31 Mar 2024, when Dynamo Kyiv won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dynamo Kyiv's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Dynamo Kyiv
2
Draws
1
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava?
From 7 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 4, Vorskla Poltava have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Vorskla Poltava 1-1 Dynamo Kyiv.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Vorskla Poltava are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 17%, Vorskla Poltava 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 50% (Vorskla Poltava).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 75% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 67% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 50% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Vorskla Poltava in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv and Vorskla Poltava finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valery Lobanovsky, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.76 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.09 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.09 / defence 0.86 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.98 / defence 1.28, drawn from 24/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 53% | Draw 24% | Vorskla Poltava 24%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 54%, Vorskla Poltava 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 58% of the time, and conceded here.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.