Oleksandria 4-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
KSK Nika plays host to Oleksandria versus LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Friday 12 September 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Oleksandria's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Oleksandria at KSK Nika this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at KSK Nika. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Oleksandria are significantly better at KSK Nika than their overall form suggests.
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 7D 1L. Last five: D D W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
LNZ Cherkasy away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Oleksandria, 1 for LNZ Cherkasy and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Oleksandria goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Oleksandria 44% versus LNZ Cherkasy 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Oleksandria 47% | LNZ Cherkasy 26%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Oleksandria 0.98 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Oleksandria attack 1.083 / defence 1.223 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.871 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.243. LNZ Cherkasy's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 34 Oleksandria games / 34 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Oleksandria 28% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 45%. Fair-value odds: Oleksandria 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.22. LNZ Cherkasy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Oleksandria 40% | LNZ Cherkasy 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Friday 12 Sep 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Oleksandria 28% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Oleksandria 0.98 / LNZ Cherkasy 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Oleksandria attack 1.083 / def 1.223 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.871 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Oleksandria xG
Expected Goals
1.32
LNZ Cherkasy xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 13:30 on Friday 12 September 2025 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Oleksandria 4 - 1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Oleksandria a 28% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (4 meetings): Oleksandria 1W | Draws 2 | LNZ Cherkasy 1W.
What form are Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Oleksandria (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Oleksandria's attack rating (1.08) and LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.87x) against Oleksandria's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
28%
3.62
28%
3.60
45%
2.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Oleksandria xG
Total xG
2.30
1.32
LNZ Cherkasy xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.24
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
7%
13.61
17%
5.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 13.2 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Oleksandria and 1.32 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Oleksandria come into this having played 34 games, going 20W 7D 7L for 1.97 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, LNZ Cherkasy sit at 1.12 PPG from 34 outings (9W 11D 14L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Oleksandria carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Oleksandria's home form reads 12W 3D 1L across 16 games on their own ground, a 2.44 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.97 PPG overall — Oleksandria are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, LNZ Cherkasy have taken 1.00 points per game from 16 outings (3W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Oleksandria are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 0.82 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Oleksandria
Early Season
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Oleksandria have gone 20W 7D 7L in their last 34 games (1.97 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 9W 11D 14L in their last 34 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Oleksandria at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Oleksandria's home record (2.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Oleksandria at home: 2.44 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Oleksandria or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Oleksandria have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Oleksandria won 4-1 on 12 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Oleksandria have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Oleksandria
2
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 6 meetings on record, Oleksandria have won 2, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 2-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Oleksandria 50%, LNZ Cherkasy 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Oleksandria) and 25% (LNZ Cherkasy).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; LNZ Cherkasy in 31%; LNZ Cherkasy in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Oleksandria home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Oleksandria play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Oleksandria's recent matches and 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Oleksandria vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Oleksandria's recent games and 25% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Oleksandria and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Oleksandria have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Oleksandria run riot with a 4-1 hammering of LNZ Cherkasy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat LNZ Cherkasy 4-1 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.98 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.32 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Oleksandria beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 1.08 / defence 1.22 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.87 / defence 0.76, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 28% | Draw 28% | LNZ Cherkasy 45%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Oleksandria win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 47%, LNZ Cherkasy 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Oleksandria's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.12. Form held, and they took the win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.