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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at KSK Nika, Final, as Oleksandria and Livyi Bereh drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.81 xG and Livyi Bereh 1.71 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.67 / defence 1.40 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 59/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 17% | Draw 25% | Livyi Bereh 58%, with Livyi Bereh to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 50%, Livyi Bereh 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 37%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oleksandria's trading profile (34 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (34 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oleksandria 0.79 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights