🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Oleksandria and Kudrivka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 16, as Oleksandria and Kudrivka drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.58 xG and Kudrivka 1.04 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Kudrivka attack 0.71 / defence 1.64, drawn from 45/15 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 50% | Draw 25% | Kudrivka 25%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 47%, Kudrivka 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oleksandria's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Kudrivka's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oleksandria 0.82 PPG, Kudrivka 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Kudrivka (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights