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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 30, as Oleksandria and Kryvbas KR drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 0.87 xG and Kryvbas KR 2.03 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Kryvbas KR landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.63 / defence 1.50 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.08 / defence 1.11, drawn from 58/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 15% | Draw 22% | Kryvbas KR 64%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 48%, Kryvbas KR 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oleksandria's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Oleksandria 1.43 PPG, Kryvbas KR 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights