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Dominant Dynamo Kyiv run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Oleksandria.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo Kyiv beat Oleksandria 0-5 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Oleksandria 1.00 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.56 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Oleksandria fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Dynamo Kyiv outscored their 1.56 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Oleksandria attack 0.80 / defence 1.04 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.29 / defence 1.07, drawn from 49/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Oleksandria 24% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 50%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 50%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Oleksandria 43%, Dynamo Kyiv 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Oleksandria's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.59. Form held, and they took the win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights