Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Vorskla Poltava – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 18 as Obolon'-Brovar welcome Vorskla Poltava to Obolon Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 23 February 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W L D D W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Obolon Arena this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vorskla Poltava — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Vorskla Poltava, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vorskla Poltava away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Obolon'-Brovar have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Vorskla Poltava have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Obolon'-Brovar.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 0–2 with Vorskla Poltava winning.
It is worth noting that Vorskla Poltava have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (47 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 57% of games.
Vorskla Poltava trading profile (47 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Obolon'-Brovar 30% versus Vorskla Poltava 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Obolon'-Brovar 34% | Vorskla Poltava 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Obolon'-Brovar 1.05 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.828 / defence 1.159 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.981 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.177 / away 1.066. Data: 47 Obolon'-Brovar games / 47 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 32% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 40%. Fair-value odds: Obolon'-Brovar 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Vorskla Poltava 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Vorskla Poltava lead the H2H ledger, but Obolon'-Brovar carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Vorskla Poltava as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Obolon'-Brovar (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vorskla Poltava offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Obolon'-Brovar 30% | Vorskla Poltava 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Feb 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Obolon'-Brovar 32% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Obolon'-Brovar 1.05 / Vorskla Poltava 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.828 / def 1.159 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.981 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.177 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: Vorskla Poltava (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Vorskla Poltava xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 23 February 2025 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava?
Obolon'-Brovar 1 - 0 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Obolon'-Brovar a 32% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 40% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Vorskla Poltava the favourite.
Will both teams score in Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava?
Record (3 meetings): Obolon'-Brovar 0W | Draws 0 | Vorskla Poltava 3W.
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava in?
Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-D-W. Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Obolon'-Brovar's attack at 0.83x the league average against Vorskla Poltava's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Vorskla Poltava's attack versus Obolon'-Brovar's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vorskla Poltava Win
32%
3.14
29%
3.51
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Obolon'-Brovar xG
Total xG
2.27
1.21
Vorskla Poltava xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
9%
10.54
14%
7.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.6 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.3 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.21 for Vorskla Poltava, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Obolon'-Brovar's recent record stands at 9W 16D 22L from 47 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with W-L-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vorskla Poltava, meanwhile, have gone 13W 10D 24L across 47 games — 1.04 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Vorskla Poltava is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Obolon'-Brovar on 0.91 PPG, Vorskla Poltava on 1.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Obolon'-Brovar have managed 5W 8D 9L from 22 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vorskla Poltava's away record stands at 6W 6D 10L across 22 trips, a 1.09 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Obolon'-Brovar are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Vorskla Poltava are on 0.96 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar have seen both teams score in 30% of their recent games.
Last 47 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Vorskla Poltava
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava in coming into this match?
Obolon'-Brovar have gone 9W 16D 22L in their last 47 games (0.91 PPG), while Vorskla Poltava have gone 13W 10D 24L in their last 47 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Obolon'-Brovar at home or Vorskla Poltava away?
Vorskla Poltava's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Obolon'-Brovar at home: 1.05 PPG; Vorskla Poltava away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Obolon'-Brovar's record when hosting Vorskla Poltava specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Obolon'-Brovar
0
Draws
3
Vorskla Poltava
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava?
From 4 meetings on record, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, Vorskla Poltava have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 Vorskla Poltava.
Who has won more matches between Obolon'-Brovar and Vorskla Poltava?
Vorskla Poltava have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Vorskla Poltava see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Obolon'-Brovar 27%, Vorskla Poltava 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Obolon'-Brovar and 36% for Vorskla Poltava.
On the defensive side: Obolon'-Brovar keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Obolon'-Brovar have failed to score in 54% of games; Vorskla Poltava in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Obolon'-Brovar home games / Vorskla Poltava away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Obolon'-Brovar play Vorskla Poltava?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent matches and 46% of Vorskla Poltava's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Obolon'-Brovar vs Vorskla Poltava usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Obolon'-Brovar's recent games and 36% of Vorskla Poltava's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Obolon'-Brovar defy the odds to beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Vorskla Poltava 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.05 xG and Vorskla Poltava 1.21 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Vorskla Poltava landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.83 / defence 1.16 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 32% | Draw 29% | Vorskla Poltava 40%, with Vorskla Poltava to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Obolon'-Brovar win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 34%, Vorskla Poltava 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (47 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not.
Vorskla Poltava's trading profile (47 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 0.91 PPG, Vorskla Poltava 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Obolon'-Brovar win broke the near-deadlock. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Vorskla Poltava (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.