🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Obolon'-Brovar defy the odds to beat Ruh Lviv 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Obolon'-Brovar beat Ruh Lviv 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 0.83 xG and Ruh Lviv 1.24 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ruh Lviv landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.82 / defence 1.34 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.76 / defence 0.83, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 25% | Draw 29% | Ruh Lviv 46%, with Ruh Lviv to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Obolon'-Brovar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 44%, Ruh Lviv 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ruh Lviv's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 1.07 PPG, Ruh Lviv 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Obolon'-Brovar win broke the near-deadlock. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights