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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Obolon'-Brovar and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 27, as Obolon'-Brovar and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi drew 2-2 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Obolon'-Brovar 1.42 xG and Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.26 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.86 / defence 1.19 against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.88 / defence 1.33, drawn from 55/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Obolon'-Brovar 39% | Draw 28% | Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 32%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Obolon'-Brovar 48%, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Obolon'-Brovar 1.00 PPG, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights