FC Kharkiv 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Kharkiv at 41%, yet in-form Shakhtar Donetsk provide a compelling counter-argument — this FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Kharkiv and Shakhtar Donetsk meet at Stadium Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
FC Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FC Kharkiv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Kharkiv's home record at Stadium Livyi Bereh: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadium Livyi Bereh. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at Stadium Livyi Bereh than their overall form suggests.
Shakhtar Donetsk (all games): 8W 0D 2L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Shakhtar Donetsk have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Shakhtar Donetsk have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Shakhtar Donetsk are 0.80 PPG clear of FC Kharkiv in recent Premier League fixtures (2.40 vs 1.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Shakhtar Donetsk, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Shakhtar Donetsk winning.
It is worth noting that Shakhtar Donetsk have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
FC Kharkiv half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk half-time and goal-timing data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 38% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.49 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.023 / defence 0.799 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.340 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.101. Shakhtar Donetsk have an above-average attack strength of 1.340 — the away xG of 1.18 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 32 FC Kharkiv games / 32 Shakhtar Donetsk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 41% | Draw 32% | Shakhtar Donetsk 27%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Shakhtar Donetsk 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Kharkiv at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shakhtar Donetsk (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. This conflicts with form data: FC Kharkiv 20% | Shakhtar Donetsk 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (32 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadium Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Aug 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 41% | Draw 32% | Shakhtar Donetsk 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG FC Kharkiv 1.49 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: FC Kharkiv attack 1.023 / def 0.799 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.340 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
FC Kharkiv xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 August 2026 at Stadium Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
FC Kharkiv 0 - 1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Stadium Livyi Bereh.
What competition is FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives FC Kharkiv a 41% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both FC Kharkiv and Shakhtar Donetsk will score (BTTS).
Will FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Record (7 meetings): FC Kharkiv 0W | Draws 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk 5W.
What form are FC Kharkiv and Shakhtar Donetsk in?
FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-L. Shakhtar Donetsk (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Kharkiv's attack at 1.02x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shakhtar Donetsk's attack (1.34x) against FC Kharkiv's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
The sample (32/32 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
41%
2.42
32%
3.16
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
FC Kharkiv xG
Total xG
2.66
1.18
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
13%
7.88
6%
16.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are FC Kharkiv and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for FC Kharkiv and 1.18 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Kharkiv's recent record stands at 14W 12D 6L from 32 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with D-D-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 23W 6D 3L across 32 games — 2.34 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Shakhtar Donetsk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Kharkiv heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, FC Kharkiv have managed 8W 5D 3L from 16 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 10W 5D 1L across 16 trips, a 2.19 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Kharkiv are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.31 scored and 0.81 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking output running into FC Kharkiv's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Shakhtar Donetsk in 56% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Kharkiv
Early Season
Shakhtar Donetsk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Kharkiv and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
FC Kharkiv have gone 14W 12D 6L in their last 32 games (1.69 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 23W 6D 3L in their last 32 (2.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Kharkiv at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Kharkiv at home: 1.81 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.19 PPG.
Have FC Kharkiv or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Kharkiv have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 56%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Shakhtar Donetsk have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shakhtar Donetsk won 0-7 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Kharkiv have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shakhtar Donetsk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
FC Kharkiv
2
Draws
6
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Kharkiv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Kharkiv have won 0, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Kharkiv and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when FC Kharkiv 0-1 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Who has won more matches between FC Kharkiv and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Kharkiv see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Kharkiv 25%, Shakhtar Donetsk 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 19% (FC Kharkiv) and 62% (Shakhtar Donetsk).
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Kharkiv home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Kharkiv play Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of FC Kharkiv's recent matches and 50% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Kharkiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 19% of FC Kharkiv's recent games and 62% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Kharkiv and Shakhtar Donetsk tend to score early?
FC Kharkiv have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Shakhtar Donetsk in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shakhtar Donetsk defy the odds to beat FC Kharkiv 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shakhtar Donetsk beat FC Kharkiv 0-1 at Stadium Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Kharkiv 1.49 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.18 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Kharkiv fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Kharkiv attack 1.02 / defence 0.80 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.34 / defence 1.16, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Kharkiv 41% | Draw 32% | Shakhtar Donetsk 27%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Shakhtar Donetsk win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Kharkiv 25%, Shakhtar Donetsk 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.34 PPG against 1.69. Form held, and they took the win. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.