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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Metalist 1925 Kharkiv and Shakhtar Donetsk share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 5, as Metalist 1925 Kharkiv and Shakhtar Donetsk drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.95 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.32 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.86 / defence 0.87 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.25 / defence 0.87, drawn from 4/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 27% | Draw 28% | Shakhtar Donetsk 45%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 21% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 14%, Shakhtar Donetsk 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 57% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 2.00 PPG, Shakhtar Donetsk 2.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (home/away splits) shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights