🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defy the odds to beat Oleksandria 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv beat Oleksandria 1-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.98 xG and Oleksandria 1.08 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Oleksandria landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.71 / defence 0.93 against Oleksandria attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 32% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 37%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 21%, Oleksandria 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (19 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Oleksandria's trading profile (19 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.79. Form held, and they took the win. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights