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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

LNZ Cherkasy beat Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0-1 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.10 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.18 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.93 / defence 0.79 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.16 / defence 1.06, drawn from 9/39 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 32% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 37%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 12% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 8%, LNZ Cherkasy 17%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.92 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights