🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates LNZ Cherkasy at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Metalist 1925 Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis & Preview

A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees LNZ Cherkasy travel to Tsentralnyi Stadion to take on Metalist 1925 Kharkiv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 October 2025, 11:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier League games this season, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Metalist 1925 Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at Tsentralnyi Stadion this season: 3W 2D 0L from 5 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 5 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tsentralnyi Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at all fixtures this season, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

LNZ Cherkasy's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.90 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's 20% rate and LNZ Cherkasy's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.

H2H

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Metalist 1925 Kharkiv, 0 for LNZ Cherkasy and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.

LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.

The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 42% | LNZ Cherkasy 25%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 8% | LNZ Cherkasy 17%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.10 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.929 / defence 0.787 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.155 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.109 / away 1.300. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 9 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv games / 39 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 32% | Draw 31% | LNZ Cherkasy 37%. Fair-value odds: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 20% | LNZ Cherkasy 30% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights